House prices overvalued say consumers, but just 1 in 4 forecasts a fall

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  • • Proportion of ‘price pessimist’ consumers expecting house prices to drop in the next 12 months falls back from 1 in 3 to 1 in 4 this quarter
  • • However, over-valuation now emerging as a major issue as around half of the UK believes prices in their local area to be too high
  • • 7th consecutive quarterly increase in those expecting prices to stay the same, now up to 40%, indicates a period price stagnation
  • • Economic recovery and return of mortgage finance seen as critical to housing recovery

one year from now graph

Rightmove’s second Consumer Confidence Survey of 2011 reveals a drop in the proportion of people expecting house prices to fall over the next year. Rightmove surveyed the housing market sentiment of over 26,000 people and has found that the proportion of those expecting prices to fall has fallen from 32.3% to 24.9%. However, a further finding of the survey was that across the UK consumers feel prices in their local area are over-valued and need to come down.

Rightmove director Miles Shipside comments: “Our Q1 survey measured the highest proportion of home movers recorded to date forecasting that prices would be lower in 12 months’ time. That was the position of a third of them then, but now that proportion sharing that view has dropped to a quarter.”

Each quarter for the past two years Rightmove have charted whether the home-moving public believe prices will increase, decrease or stay around the same. For this latest survey the public were also asked whether they believed prices in their area were overvalued, undervalued or about right. The results reveal that just under half (48%) of respondents believe prices in their local area are over-valued, with just 15% of the opinion that they are too low. In London (60.8), the South East (51.7%) and the South West (52.7%) the proportion of those feeling prices were overvalued were in the majority.

Shipside adds: “There is a growing sense that many homes coming onto the UK housing market are priced too high and this is borne out by the views expressed in this survey. We now have a situation where half of the UK public feel house prices are too high, yet three quarters of the same public are expecting prices to either stay the same or increase over the next 12 months. This suggests the prospect of a market stand-off and rising unsold stock levels if sellers don’t wise up to the house price views of their target market.”

Rightmove’s most recent House Price Index found that unsold stock levels saw their biggest jump for four years in April, from 70 to 74 properties per estate agency branch, despite new sellers increasing their asking prices by 1.7% in the same month. This suggests a clear mismatch between seller expectations and what buyers are willing to spend, and this view is further highlighted when local market value opinions are broken down into home-mover categories. Only 34.6% of respondents to Rightmove’s survey who intend to sell a property over the next year felt properties in their area were over-valued, significantly lower than the national average of 48%. Of those intend to buy, 45.8% felt local properties were over-valued and the figure jumps to a huge 66% for first-time buyers.

The proportion of respondents forecasting that prices will remain about the same has grown for the 7th consecutive quarter. They now number 40%, up from 38% the previous quarter and up from the 32% measured a year ago. This trend suggests that prices will level out rather than increase of the next 12 months.

Shipside comments: “The biggest proportion in our survey, 4 out of 10, think we are through the worst and expect a period of price stagnation, rather than rises and falls 12 months out. It’s not exciting for those owner occupiers hoping for their bricks and mortar investment to grow, but a sign of a sense of realism that the roof over your head is a home rather than a wealth play. Individuals circumstances vary and this recession has affected the less wealthy demographic sectors that exist in every region, so sentiments are mixed depending on how hard you have been hit, with some local markets having been really clobbered”.

Reasons for the more optimistic move in the main seem to be a feeling that the economy would be improving (54%), though those in the price pessimism camp felt that deteriorating mortgage availability was becoming a bigger issue, jumping from 12% last survey to 23% this.

main reason for prices lower 12 months

main reason for prices higher 12 months

11 Responses to “House prices overvalued say consumers, but just 1 in 4 forecasts a fall”

  1. Online Estate Agents Says:

    I’ve been looking for a flat to buy in NW London for the last 3 months now and even in that time I have noticed prices increasing. Properties coming on the market in high demand areas are achieving asking price or higher in a lot of cases. Prices have definitely reached peak level again.

  2. nikki jones Says:

    So why is it then that i have a newly converted 6 bedroom barn conversion in somerset that has been on the market for over 6 months and no sale ?? And also why cant I find an estate agents that will grab the property by the horns and sell with out tieing me into a contract ( to just being with themselves ) and trying to charge me £1000’s up front …… Maybe someone can help me nikki 07766 416723

  3. Fresher Says:

    Trying to buy a house in Formby near Liverpool.
    Drastically overpriced (footballer syndrome)—the people who live here seem to think they are a special case and prices should remain as at their peak in 2007.
    Sorry! You are NOT the Chelsea of the North and I heard the footballers are moving to Aughton and the Wirral

  4. Paul Skinner Says:

    OEA is right, some areas are seeing asking prices being met, and often exceeded. This is particularly so in some areas of Londond and Kent.

    Unfortunately, nikki, if your property is not in one of the “booming” areas, then times are still rather tough. Good luck.

  5. Simon Ware Says:

    Never mind the estate agents that we’ve been ripped off by and poorly serviced by for years. What about Landlords and letting agents that charge £190 for “paperwork fees” when a credit check costs £2 and a reference service costs less than £20?

    Overvaluing just makes greedy people think that they will get more money than their house is actually worth and then dissapoint them righteously when it sells for £xxx less than it should do.

    Private or agency lettings should be more heavily monitored.

  6. Amanda Says:

    Hi Nikki. Hopefully I can help you on both questions. House prices in London always rise first before the rest of the country. Furthermore the demand in London does not always reflect the rest of the country.

  7. andrew Says:

    In poulton-le-fylde we are finding the opposite, people still expecting more for their properties than they are worth most seem to have lost 20-25% of their value since end of 2007 when they peaked.Valuations coming in very low leaving people without a mortgage as taking them above the % the lenders are happy with.

  8. Maureen Parkhouse Says:

    I am looking to see more information on the house 57 Leigh Road in Cobham Surrey England.
    I am the neice of the owner (deceased

    Please tell me how I can acess this information on your website.

    Thanks

    Maureen Parkhouse

  9. Jeni Gray Says:

    We have a beautifull 3 bed 3 bath villa with a pool in Southern Spain. Does anyone know if there are any UK Estate agents who might be interested in buying our house? We would then be cash buyers ready to look for a house in UK! Even a reply from a few of the Agents I have contacted would be nice. Any comments?

  10. Gretha Henning Says:

    Kindly tell me where the areas are which are in higher demand in London. Would love to know???

  11. Cory Interdonato Says:

    We’re having chaos in the world’s stock markets again. I’m predicting the upper bracket is going to go very, very soft again until at least next spring due to all the uncertainty. Whither the stock market, whither upper end real estate.Sabrina, I totally agree. Most people who buy high end real estate do it because they WANT to (not because they NEED to). With the financial turmoil and uncertainty right now, NOBODY in their right mind is going to be buying high end real estate (unless it is an absolute steal or unless the buyer has a ridiculous amount of money ie over 20 million)VA:F [1.9.11_1134]

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