House Price Index

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2012 forecast: a fragmented and uncertain market

  % Change in month% Change Past YearAve house price
Dec HPI-2.7%1.5%£225,766
Nov HPI-3.1%1.2%£232,144

Key points

  • 2011 ends with national average asking prices little changed (+1.5%) on a year ago
  • The key to buying and selling in 2012 will be being “micro-market savvy”:

    - Sellers must analyse their local competitive edge in terms of location, accommodation and price

    - Buyers could find areas with a lack of choice and high prices, or a glut and bargains, all within a few miles of each other

  • National asking prices forecast to rise by circa 2% in 2012:

    - Prices will be underpinned by a shortage of new sellers – we expect circa 1.2 million new sellers, down marginally on 2011 and still down by around a third on 2007 pre-credit crunch levels

    - Mortgage availability to remain difficult and, with low interest rates continuing to limit repossessions to below 40,000, transaction numbers will stay muted at 2011 levels

    - Uncertain outlook for the Eurozone weighs on potential home movers’ decision making — will it be a minor bump or a Lehman Brothers-style derailing?

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