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Year-end forecast revised to +8%, in spite of first fall of 2014

  % Change in month% Change Past YearAve house price
Jul HPI-0.8%+6.5%£270,159
Jun HPI+0.1%+7.7%£272,275

Key points

  • Price of property coming to market falls for the first time this year, down by 0.8% (-£2,116) this month, leading to fall in annual rate of growth from 7.7% to 6.5%
  • 2014 still ‘the year to move’ in spite of seasonal slowdown and cautious tone from Bank of England:
  • Help to Buy success in unlocking higher deposit middle-market: while Mortgage Market Review tightening will restrain buyers in high loan-to-income brackets, nearly half of home-movers who expect to buy over next 12 months are ‘equity-rich third-timers’
  • Speedier sales: average time to sell falls to 65 days from 75 days in same period last year
  • London ripple effect spreads, especially in southern regions: upwards price pressure remains where shortage of supply still fuels price growth
  • Rightmove upgrades 2014 forecast: new seller asking prices will see an 8% annual increase at year end, hitting the top end of our original forecast of 6% - 8%
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