{"id":1025,"date":"2025-02-20T13:23:17","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T13:23:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/?p=1025"},"modified":"2025-02-20T13:23:18","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T13:23:18","slug":"retail-real-estate-q4-2024-uk-market-trends-and-2025-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/retail-real-estate-q4-2024-uk-market-trends-and-2025-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail real estate Q4 2024: UK market trends and 2025 outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Research predicts a positive year ahead<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For years, the prevailing opinion among retail property experts was that the UK simply had too much stock. In an era when consumers increasingly buy online, thereby bypassing the high street or shopping centres entirely, there was simply no need for so many shops.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>32% increase in investment demand<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, however, a new consensus appears to have emerged, with research from multiple companies predicting a positive year ahead. Rightmove is no exception. The latest iteration of its Commercial Insights Tracker, covering the year to the end of Q4 2024, recorded an increase in demand in the leasing market of 6%. At the same time, supply fell by 5%. The figures in the investment market are dramatic, with an increase in demand of 32% and a decrease in supply of 12%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Right-sizing to meet new demand<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasts for the year ahead from some of the world\u2019s biggest advisory firms concur that the outlook for the year is positive for retail. \u201cConstrained supply over recent years means that retail is \u2018right-sizing\u2019 to meet a new demand reality, and opportunities are emerging as improving vacancy rates combine with positive economic trends,\u201d JLL wrote in a research paper published towards the end of last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe investment market should also benefit from gradually increasing activity, as more investors seek to take advantage of the rebasing of real estate prices, and greater levels of stock on the market. Retail fundamentals appear strong in many markets, creating a powerful case for real estate investors to target the sector. The tide has finally turned, and a new era for the right type of retail has arrived.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_1101442394-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1029\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_1101442394-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_1101442394-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_1101442394-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_1101442394-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_1101442394-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>8.9% returns predicted in 2025<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Knight Frank comes to similar conclusions. It forecasts that taken as a whole, retail will achieve returns of 8.9% in 2025, compared to 5.1% for the wider commercial property market. Retail warehousing will provide particularly impressive returns, at 11.4%, while shopping centres will see returns of 8.6% and high street stores 7.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cTellingly, this improvement in total returns will be driven not just by high income return (+5.8%) as was the case in the past, but also by positive capital growth (+2.9%),\u201d Knight Frank says. \u201cCapital value growth will be strongest in retail warehouses (+4.5%) but will not be insignificant in either shopping centres (+1.7%) or high street shops (+2.9%).\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It adds: \u201cRetail\u2019s annual average total returns between 2024 and 2028 are forecast to be 8.1%, with 5 year annual average capital increases of +2.2%. Retail\u2019s annual total returns over this five-year period will be higher than Offices (6.0%) and only marginally lower than Industrial (8.2%).\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Rentals also on an upward trajectory<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Rents are also on the up. According to Knight Frank, overall retail will see rental growth of 1.2%, which the company admits doesn\u2019t sound all that impressive but points out that the headline figure disguises a far more positive story. \u201cAlthough still fairly modest, this is significant in that all retail sub-sectors are forecast to achieve positive rental growth to some degree, a feat achieved only once since 2007, in 2014,\u201d it says.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Positive predictions despite some challenges<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>These positive predictions are made despite some unhelpful headwinds. Most prominently, the Autumn Budget included what Knight Frank describes as a \u201ctriple whammy\u201d of measures that will impact retailers particularly hard: increase to employer national insurance contributions; increases to the minimum wage; and changes to how business rates apply to retail.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The researchers state that these pressures on retailers will have a knock on effect on retail property, but maintain that the sector ultimately remains on an upwards trajectory. \u201c[The measures in the Budget have] added considerable cost pressures to retail occupiers, which are likely to moderate demand and rental growth in the short term. Once understood and absorbed appropriately, the sustained retail recovery will continue longer term.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Colliers agrees with the likes of JLL and Knight Frank that the sector has turned a corner and that 2025 will be a positive year for retail in the right location.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_293803164-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1031\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_293803164-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_293803164-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_293803164-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_293803164-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_293803164.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere is increasing competition for prime space in the retail sector in shopping centres, high streets and out-of-town locations with particular expansion in the realm of supermarkets,\u201d the company\u2019s researchers wrote in a recent forecast.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDespite challenges around rising costs, the limited availability of retail stock continues to push up prime rents, with the ongoing importance of physical retail shopping as a leisure experience reflected in footfall numbers.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or, as David Fox, head of retail at Colliers, puts it: \u201cRetailers are competing for limited space, which is driving rental growth and underlining the continued value of bricks-and-mortar retail.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rightmove Commercial \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/q4-2024-tracker\/\">Q4 2024 Insights Tracker&nbsp;<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Knight Frank &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/content.knightfrank.com\/research\/2278\/documents\/en\/retail-investment-update-h2-2024-11765.pdf\">Retail Investment Update &amp; 2025 Outlook<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>JLL \u2013 <a href=\"Retail%20poised%20to%20ride%20the%20wave\">Retail poised to rise the wave after tide turns<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Colliers \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.colliers.com\/en-gb\/news\/17-12-24-commercial-property-predictions#:~:text=Retail%20%E2%80%93%20Resilience%20Amidst%20a%20Changing,in%20the%20realm%20of%20supermarkets.\">2025 commercial property predictions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Understand the UK retail real estate trends based on Q4 data and insights.<br \/>\n Discover how market forecasts and rising demands are influencing strategic decisions for investors and analysts.<\/p>\n","protected":false,"text":"Understand the UK retail real estate trends based on Q4 data and insights. \n Discover how market forecasts and rising demands are influencing strategic decisions for investors and analysts.\n"},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[47,23,25,29,19,17,21],"article_type":[4],"class_list":["post-1025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-insights","tag-2025-outlook","tag-commercial-property","tag-insights","tag-investment","tag-real-estate","tag-retail","tag-uk-market-trends","type-article"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Retail real estate Q4 2024: UK market trends and 2025 outlook | Commercial Property News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/retail-real-estate-q4-2024-uk-market-trends-and-2025-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Retail real estate Q4 2024: UK market trends and 2025 outlook | Commercial Property News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Understand the UK retail real estate trends based on Q4 data and insights.  Discover how market forecasts and rising demands are influencing strategic decisions for investors and analysts.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/retail-real-estate-q4-2024-uk-market-trends-and-2025-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/rightmove.co.uk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-02-20T13:23:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-20T13:23:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rightmove.co.uk\/commercial-property\/news\/content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_1101442394-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" 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