House Price Index

Autumn action starts early as movers spot window of opportunity

• Average new seller asking prices rise by 0.8% (+£2,974) this month to £370,759. September usually sees a monthly rise in prices, but this year’s increase is double the long-term average, with prices supported by increased activity levels
• The traditionally busier Autumn market appears to have started early, with many movers spotting a window of opportunity to act as mortgage rates trend downwards and property choice increases:
  • The number of sales being agreed is up by 27% year on year, a strong rebound compared with last year’s more subdued market as pent-up buyer demand is released
  • Home-owners more confident to come to market, with the number of new sellers up by 14% on this time last year, and the average number of available homes for sale per estate agent at its highest since 2014
• However, the market remains cautious, and there are still uncertainties ahead:
  • It’s currently taking an average of 60 days for a seller to find a buyer, three days longer than in the more subdued market at this time last year as value-conscious buyers take their time to find the right home at the right price
  • The average 5-year fixed mortgage rate is still 4.67%, and while this is lower than the peak of 6.11% in July 2023 nearly double the 2.34% at this time three years ago
  • We wait to see any housing announcements made in the Autumn Statement on October 30th

The average price of property coming to the market for sale rises by 0.8% this month (+£2,974) to £370,759. September nearly always sees a rise in prices from August, but this year’s increase of 0.8% is double the long-term average. This rise in prices beyond the usual seasonal norm has been driven by a strong recovery in activity this summer when compared with the much more subdued market at this time in 2023. It appears that the traditionally busier autumn market has arrived earlier than usual, with many buyers and sellers spotting a window of opportunity to act. Mortgage rates are trending downwards, there’s more property choice for buyers, and earnings are now rising faster than both inflation and house price growth. These factors are all contributing to better conditions for moving. However, despite some strong headline figures this month, beneath the surface the market remains cautious, with pricing right still key for a successful sale. There are still uncertainties ahead, including the timing of a second Bank Rate cut, and which segments of the market could be affected by announcements in October’s Autumn Statement.

“The autumn action has started early with a strong rebound in activity from both buyers and sellers compared to the subdued market at this time last year, continuing the momentum from the  better-than-expected summer market. The certainty of a new government followed by the first Bank Rate cut in four years invigorated the market, opening a window of opportunity for movers to act. Some of this will be pent-up demand from those who had to hit the pause button until now. However, windows of opportunity tend to need a momentum of good news to stay open, and there are still uncertainties ahead which could cause some of the current market activity to ease.”

Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science

The number of sales being agreed between buyers and sellers is up by 27% compared to this time in 2023, a strong rebound compared with last year’s more subdued market. In positive signs for future sales, the number of potential buyers contacting agents is also up by 15% compared with this time last year. Buyer choice has been improving, and the average number of available homes for sale per estate agency branch is at its highest since 2014, at 33 homes. This has come from a 14% increase in new properties coming to the market for sale compared with last year, but there still isn’t a glut of homes for sale, as this figure is only up by 3% when compared with the more normal pre-pandemic 2019 market.

Despite these strong figures, there are signs that the market is still cautious and price-sensitive. The average property is still taking 60 days to find a buyer, which is three days longer than at this time last year even with better market conditions. This suggests that value-conscious buyers are taking their time to find the right home at the right price, leading to a two-speed market. Attractive homes priced accurately are likely to be met with interest from buyers quickly, while overpriced or poorly presented homes may languish on the sidelines. Additionally, though the downward direction of mortgage rates is welcome for mover sentiment, they remain high when compared with the period from 2008 to 2022. Rightmove’s weekly mortgage tracker shows that the average 5-year fixed rate is now 4.67%. While this is lower than the peak of 6.11% in July 2023, it is still nearly double the 2.34% of this time three years ago, before the first of 14 consecutive Bank Rate rises. While some can afford to move and are seizing the current window of opportunity to act, others will still need to wait for mortgage rates to reduce and affordability to improve further.

There are still some uncertainties ahead, with all eyes initially on whether the Bank of England decides to opt for a second consecutive rate cut later this week. Looking further ahead, we wait to see which segments and sectors of the market may be affected by the Autumn Statement. Rightmove’s real-time data suggests that some sectors are already reacting to the widely mooted increase in capital gains tax, with a record proportion of former rental homes currently on the market for sale, suggesting more landlords are selling up.

“Early autumn movers who are acting quickly and taking advantage of the improved market conditions are getting the pick of quality homes for sale. Home-owners who are thinking of coming to market soon shouldn’t let the increased activity make them over-optimistic and must price competitively to sell. With affordability still very stretched for many, choosy buyers are taking their time to browse the increased number of homes for sale and find the perfect home at the right price. There are question marks over how the market will be affected by announcements in the Autumn Statement, but until then we expect that market momentum will continue as the autumn action rolls on.”

Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science

Experts’ Views

“There is a good level of activity at the moment leading into the Autumn, even though summer is typically a quieter period for the market as people head off and come back from holiday. We’re seeing more sellers coming to market, and overall we’re seeing some positive sentiment amongst both sellers and buyers. Well-priced and attractive properties are still selling quickly, even getting interest on the first day of marketing. However, the price has to be right – otherwise, they risk being ignored by prospective buyers. I’m hopeful for a positive run up to Christmas now as Autumn gets underway.”

Jason Dainty, co-founder of Hopkins & Dainty in Derbyshire

The first-time buyer monthly mortgage payment is based on Bank of England data of the averages for 90% LTV two-year fixed mortgages from lenders, and the average asking price of a typical first-time buyer home (two bedrooms or fewer) using the Rightmove House Price Index. The equivalent monthly rent is calculated using the same property types (two bedrooms or fewer).

The affordability to buy a first home is based on the Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) dataset from ONS multiplied by 4.5 to get the typical maximum that a person can borrow from a lender. The average asking price of a typical first-time buyer home is taken from the Rightmove House Price Index.

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